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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump crossed the 50% thresholds in their primary election races after results from 12 March contests came in. This effectively ensures their positions as Democratic and Republican party candidates respectively ahead of the November presidential election.
- Results from primary elections/caucuses in Georgia (both parties), Mississippi (both parties), Washington (both parties), Hawaii (Republican), Northern Marianas (Democrats), and among Democrats Abroad pushed Biden and Trump over the delegate count required to win the nomination, which will be formally confirmed at the party conventions in the summer.
- Political betting markets have for some time had Trump and Biden as favorites. Data from Smarkets gives Trump a 48.1% implied probability of winning. Biden is on 38.5%, although this is an improvement from a recent nadir of 25.3% on 11 Feb.
- Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr has a 2.9% implied probability of winning. RFK's campaign has garnered some headlines in the past 24 hours with speculation regarding his vice-presidential pick. The NYT reportedthat Kennedy had sounded out NY Jets QB Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura.
- While Kennedy is a rank long-shot for the presidency, his campaign could have a significant effect on the eventual winner. Given how close the race would appear to be according to polling, the balance of voters from Democratic or Republican ranks, and in which states, are drawn to Kennedy could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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