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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The 538 presidential election modelstill forecasts a slight President Biden victory, despite Biden's widely panned performance at the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump.
- MNI's Political Risk team noted in analysisof presidential election models that the 538 model weighs fundamentals like the economy more favourably for Biden. So the 538 forecast will provide a useful guide on the extent of a polling recalibration as more post-debate surveys trickle in.
- 538 noted that an Ipsos survey, taken shortly after the debate, found that: "The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote. That said, Biden did lose a small share of potential voters: Post-debate, 46.7 percent of likely voters said they were considering voting for him, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than before the debate."
- Considering that Biden entered the debate in a position of polling weakness, even a minor 1.6% swing to Trump could significantly impact Biden's prospects of re-election.
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast
Source: 538
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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