July 01, 2024 18:29 GMT
Biden Loses Ground After Presidential Debate
US
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The 538 presidential election modelstill forecasts a slight President Biden victory, despite Biden's widely panned performance at the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump.
- MNI's Political Risk team noted in analysisof presidential election models that the 538 model weighs fundamentals like the economy more favourably for Biden. So the 538 forecast will provide a useful guide on the extent of a polling recalibration as more post-debate surveys trickle in.
- 538 noted that an Ipsos survey, taken shortly after the debate, found that: "The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote. That said, Biden did lose a small share of potential voters: Post-debate, 46.7 percent of likely voters said they were considering voting for him, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than before the debate."
- Considering that Biden entered the debate in a position of polling weakness, even a minor 1.6% swing to Trump could significantly impact Biden's prospects of re-election.
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast
Source: 538
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