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Free AccessBiden-Putin Talks: No Major Progress But Steps In The Right Direction
Yesterday's Geneva summit between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin did not achieve any major geopolitical breakthroughs. However, given the low expectations set out by both sides ahead of the meeting, the fact that the event took place with cordial relations and resulted in some important diplomatic dialogue with the prospect of future meetings taking place, it can be seen as something of a success.
- Both sides were able to set out their 'red lines' for one another, with the notable ones for the US consisting of Russia halting alleged cyberattacks on critical US infrastructure and meddling in US elections. For Russia the key red line was the restatement that Ukraine should not be admitted to NATO.
- The lowest-hanging fruit in terms of 'summit successes' was achieved when both sides agreed to re-instate the ambassadors to one another's nations. The ambassadors are due to return to their postings in the coming days.
- Both sides also agreed to hold inter-agency level talks to build on the New START nuclear arms control treaty, which was extended to 2026 following talks earlier this year. A joint statement released reaffirmed the principle that "that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and that it must never be fought".
- What can the US see as successful outcomes of the talks?: If detained opposition activist Alexei Navalny survives his incarceration, if there are no repeats of the Solar Winds or Colonial pipeline hacks on US infrastructure, if Russia does not redeploy troops around Ukraine's eastern borders, if Russia commits to significant nuclear arms reductions in future talks.
- What can Russia see as successful outcomes of the talks?: If the US lifts some current sanctions or does not implement any more on Russian citizens or entities (notably on the Nord Stream II pipeline), if the US begins to cool on Ukrainian (or Georgian) NATO membership, if the US keeps its warships a distance from Crimea and Russian territory in the Black Sea.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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