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A survey from TIPP Insights has found that President Biden and former President Donald Trump are effectively tied in polling for the 2024 presidential election, but analysis of the survey data suggests that Biden faces problems with both Black and Hispanic voters - a key support base for his 2020 win.
- TIPP: "Biden runs strongly in urban areas, taking 55% of that vote to Trump's 31%. But the suburbs favor Trump 44% to Biden's 38%, while Trump's lead in rural areas is even larger: 49% Trump, 27% Biden. Urban voters in the I&I/TIPP survey make up just about 30% of all voters."
- "In 2020, according to a Roper Survey exit poll of voters, Biden took an estimated 87% of the black vote and 65% of the Hispanic vote running against Trump, who received an estimated 12% of the black vote and 32% of the Hispanic tally."
- TIPP notes: "This time around... Current I&I/TIPP data show Trump getting a near-identical level of Hispanic support as in 2020, 31%, but Biden's backing has plunged from more than 60% to just 53%."
- "Of greater concern for Democrats is that Trump now holds a shocking 23% of the black vote, more than doubling his support... since the last election."
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Voting Intention
Source: TIPP
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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