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Big Negative Surprise In UMich Survey Boosts Tsys, Weakens USD

US DATA

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for August was much weaker than expected, coming in at the lowest level since 2011 at 70.2 (vs 81.2 expected and 81.2 prior).

  • Treasuries are at session highs and the dollar extends lows on this very weak report across the board, with concerns over inflation rising and consumers' expectations worsened.
  • The "current conditions" index fell to 77.9 from 84.5, marking the lowest level since last April and far below the 77.9 expected. And expectations plummeted to 65.2 (lowest since 2013) vs 79.0 prior and 78.0 expected.
  • Expectations of inflation in 1 year dipped 0.1pp to 4.6% vs July's 4.7%, in line with expectations, but the longer-term outlook rose to 3.0% (highest since 2013) from 2.8% prior.
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