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Big Single Family Permits/Starts Divergence (2/2)

US DATA

The 1.33mln December building permits were the lowest (ex-2020 pandemic) since June 2019.

  • Single family permits continued to plummet - falling 51k from Nov to 730k, the lowest monthly figure since 2016, outside of the 2020 pandemic collapse.
  • And while multi-unit permits offset this in December, up 30k to 600k, the rise is mainly a bounceback from November's figure which was the weakest since September 2021.
  • Interestingly, single family housing starts exceeded permits by 179k in December, the biggest divergence in the monthly series since 2003 - see chart.
  • While there was no evident reason for the divergence, this is probably a negative signal, as permits are the better leading indicator of future activity.

Source: Census Bureau, MNI

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