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BMO Expect Cooling Trend Amidst Potential January Employment Noise

CANADA
  • BMO look for employment growth of 15k in January (per consensus of 15k) but “wouldn’t be surprised to see an outlier” with the release likened to a “random number generator”.
  • “Last year January employment surged 150k (now revised down to about 110k), which itself followed a strong Q4 […] consensus was also 15k”
  • “Part of the issue at hand is that there's huge seasonality in January. All told, January has seen some pretty big volatility in recent years, and another round wouldn't be shocking” and unlikely to alter the bigger picture view for the BoC.
  • “The unemployment rate tends to be a bit more stable than the headline employment change” with BMO looking for a steady rate at 5.8%, “but only because December was 5.77%” with the risk skewed towards a further increase.
  • “No matter, the trend in the labour market is continue cooling, with a rising unemployment rate.”
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