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BNP Lowers Feb Hike View To 25bp, Still Sees 5.25% Terminal And 2024 Cuts

FED

Following yesterday's US inflation report, BNP Paribas analysts have downgraded expectations for the Feb FOMC hike, now looking for 25bp vs 50bp prior (in line with the decisive shift in market pricing).

  • While they think the underlying details of the Dec inflation report still point to "inflation persistence which will ultimately have to be addressed more forcefully through policy channels", "such a downshift [in rates] buys time for policymakers by pushing the hawk-dove debate over the final destination of the fed funds rate into Q2 2023."
  • They still see a 5.00-5.25% terminal rate, but reached in May vs their previous view of March.
  • BNP doesn't expect the Fed to be cutting by end-2023, but sees 200bp of cuts in 2024.
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