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BNP Paribas: QE Changes Coming In December

FED
  • BNP had expected the Fed to deliver outcome-based forward guidance at this meeting, and anticipate changes to balance sheet policy are likely to come next.
  • Specifically, they expect the FOMC "to commit to large-scale asset purchases through 2021 and extend the weighted average maturity of UST purchases at its December meeting." This would include the weighted average maturity shifting from 6.5 years to 8 years (closer to that of monthly Tsy issuance).
  • "Unlike QE, the impact of forward guidance can be slow moving as seen in 2011-12. Indeed, it is procyclical in the sense that it is most powerful as the recovery gets going in earnest…[the] FOMC is signalling spot real rates at -2% even with employment effectively recovering to its maximum level"
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