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BOC Debate Shifting From Whether To Hike To How Long To Hold

BOC
  • "Governing Council’s discussion of monetary policy is shifting from whether our policy rate is restrictive enough to restore price stability, to how long it needs to stay at the current level," Macklem says in his press conference statement. 
  • The Bank moved language around a potential interest-rate hike from the Interest-Rate Announcement to Governor Macklem's opening statement. 
  • "If new developments push inflation higher, we may still need to raise rates," Macklem says in opening statement. The Bank kept its policy rate at +5%. 
  • The Bank remains concerned about the lack of sustained declines in core CPI. 
  • BOC 2024 inflation outlook revised down to +2.8% from +3% as oil price expectations decrease, the average inflation rate forecast for 2025 remains slightly above target at +2.2%. 
  • While labour market conditions are easing, wage growth remains elevated between +4-5% while productivity growth stalls. 
  • The Bank says the economy has moved to moderate excess supply with the output gap predicted to be between -0.25% and -1.25%. 

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