Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- Inflation forecast changes are mixed but ultimately net dovish: The increase from 2.2 to 2.4% for 2025 after an unchanged 2.6% in 2024 appears to reflect base effects. Instead, the end-year figures were revised 0.2pps higher to 2.4% for 4Q24 but then 0.1pp lower to 2.0% in both 4Q25 and 4Q26.
- This is backed up by the newly released core CPI profile which is also seen at 2.4% in 4Q24, 2.0% in 4Q25 and 2.0% in 4Q26.
- Quarterly GDP growth estimates unsurprisingly reflected historical downward revisions to Q4 and Q1 but then left Q2 unrevised at 1.5% and now indicate a strong 2.8% in Q3.
- However, these prior downward revisions take their toll on near-term growth forecasts (4Q24 seen at 2.0% vs 2.1% prior) but notably there is then only similar momentum in 2025 (2.1% in 4Q25) before an acceleration through 2026 (2.5% vs 1.9% prior) aided by labour productivity growth.
- That would see above-trend growth only out in 2026 as “Potential output growth is projected to slow from roughly 2¼% in 2024 to a more modest average of 2% over 2025 and 2026. This moderation reflects expected changes in the inflow of non-permanent residents.”
- The current assessment on the output gap doesn’t offer many surprises, it has shifted from -0.5 to -1.5% range estimated for Q1 to now -0.75% to -1.75% for Q2.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok