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  • Likely a two-part affair with the statement-only release on Wed followed by Governor Macklem potentially fleshing out balance sheet runoff plans in the subsequent Economic Progress Report on Thu, before further commentary in front of the House of Commons.
  • Analysts unanimously expect the BOC to commence the hiking cycle with a 25bp hike, surveyed prior to the latest repricing of rates globally which has seen the OIS hike expectations slashed to 20bps for the meeting.
  • Potential market implications are hard to gauge when approaching the meeting with such a fluid market environment but the size of the rally in rates on Tuesday could leave even broadly-as-expected guidance being treated as if it was hawkish.

The full note including MNI analysis, the return of Instant Answers and views of 13 sellside analysts can be found here:

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