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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
As noted elsewhere, BoE-dated OIS pricing has softened a touch today. The pullback from yesterday’s hawkish extremes in terminal policy rate pricing (6.68%) based ahead of 6.50% before ticking back up to just above 6.55%. That means that the bulk of this week’s hawkish repricing has been consolidated, as continued worry re: the domestic inflationary outlook, a lack of BoE guidance on the trajectory for monetary policy, a lack of meaningful receiver-side flow and sell-side reports cautioning on the potential for meaningfully higher rates leave pricing comfortably above levels that prevailed at the end of last week.
- Halifax house price data revealed the largest Y/Y drop since ’11 as higher mortgage rates take hold, with plenty of worry apparent re: that space.
- Looking ahead, comments from MPC hawk Mann headline the domestic docket ahead of the weekend (she will be a panellist in a discussion on ‘Challenges for policy after the return of inflation: new directions for research?’), with the potential for plenty of cross-market vol. surrounding U.S. NFPs.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-23 | 5.404 | +47.5 |
| Sep-23 | 5.802 | +87.2 |
| Nov-23 | 6.141 | +121.1 |
| Dec-23 | 6.350 | +142.0 |
| Feb-24 | 6.479 | +154.9 |
| Mar-24 | 6.495 | +156.5 |
| May-24 | 6.486 | +155.6 |
| Jun-24 | 6.450 | +152.0 |
source: MNI Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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