Free Trial

BoE-Dated OIS Looks To Bonds/Oil As It Bounces From Dovish Session Extremes

STIR

The run away from session highs after various key technical levels held in the core global FI sphere, coupled with the move away from lows in crude oil futures (owing to supply-related matters surrounding the Red Sea), leaves the BoE-dated OIS strip running as is shown below.

  • Contracts through '24 MPC meetings are little changed to ~5bp firmer on the day.
  • May '24 MPC pricing sees ~75% odds of the first 25bp cut coming by the end of that gathering, with a a full 25bp cut more than fully discounted through the end of the June MPC.
  • Further out, ~108bp of cuts are now priced through '24 (vs. prevailing SONIA levels).
  • Comments from BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent (covered earlier) failed to move the needle for markets, leaving wider themes at the fore.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.212+2.6
Mar-245.162-2.4
May-245.011-17.5
Jun-244.851-33.5
Aug-244.647-53.9
Sep-244.461-72.5
Nov-244.260-92.6
Dec-244.105-108.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.