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BOE DMP details mixed

UK DATA
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Looking in more detail at the DMP, there are some mixed readings - realised employment growth fell as did realised wage growth and expected wage growth. However, expected employment growth (despite falling on a 3-month reading) picked up on the single month measure, with a similar story for expected price growth.

  • The single month figure for realised employment growth fell from 2.7% in December to 1.0% in April, which meant the 3-month average has fallen by 0.3ppt for two consecurive months to 1.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to April. This is the lowest 3-month average since the 3-months to November 2021.
  • Expected employment growth has also declined to 1.3%Y/Y in the 3-months to April (down 0.1ppt and the lowset since October). However, the single month reading in March of 1.0%Y/Y looks particularly weak - both February and April were 1.4%Y/Y (down from a recent peak of 1.8% in January).
  • The 3-month average of expected wage growth declined 0.1ppt to 4.8%/Y in the 3-months to April 2024, down from 4.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to March, and following 8 consecutive periods of either 5.1%Y/Y or 5.2%Y/Y (and was higher for the 10 periods before that). This equals the lowest print of 4.8% seen as the survey was begun in May 2022.
  • Realised wage growth fell to 6.2%Y/Y in the 3-months to April. This was the lowest since November 2022 (and the single month print fell to 5.9%Y/Y - the first time it has been below 6% since July 2022).
  • The single month reading for mean expected price growth was 4.2%Y/Y in April, up from 3.7%Y/Y in March and marginally above the 4.1%Y/Y of February. This has brought the 3-month average to 4.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to March, down 0.1ppt from last month and 0.3ppt below the 4.3%Y/Y in both February and January, and from a peak of 6.6%Y/Y in September 2022.
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Looking in more detail at the DMP, there are some mixed readings - realised employment growth fell as did realised wage growth and expected wage growth. However, expected employment growth (despite falling on a 3-month reading) picked up on the single month measure, with a similar story for expected price growth.

  • The single month figure for realised employment growth fell from 2.7% in December to 1.0% in April, which meant the 3-month average has fallen by 0.3ppt for two consecurive months to 1.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to April. This is the lowest 3-month average since the 3-months to November 2021.
  • Expected employment growth has also declined to 1.3%Y/Y in the 3-months to April (down 0.1ppt and the lowset since October). However, the single month reading in March of 1.0%Y/Y looks particularly weak - both February and April were 1.4%Y/Y (down from a recent peak of 1.8% in January).
  • The 3-month average of expected wage growth declined 0.1ppt to 4.8%/Y in the 3-months to April 2024, down from 4.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to March, and following 8 consecutive periods of either 5.1%Y/Y or 5.2%Y/Y (and was higher for the 10 periods before that). This equals the lowest print of 4.8% seen as the survey was begun in May 2022.
  • Realised wage growth fell to 6.2%Y/Y in the 3-months to April. This was the lowest since November 2022 (and the single month print fell to 5.9%Y/Y - the first time it has been below 6% since July 2022).
  • The single month reading for mean expected price growth was 4.2%Y/Y in April, up from 3.7%Y/Y in March and marginally above the 4.1%Y/Y of February. This has brought the 3-month average to 4.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to March, down 0.1ppt from last month and 0.3ppt below the 4.3%Y/Y in both February and January, and from a peak of 6.6%Y/Y in September 2022.