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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
BOE
- The MPC is due to release its policy decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Minutes and Monetary Policy Report at midday GMT with the press conference due to start 30 minutes later at 12:30GMT.
- The February MPC meeting will almost certainly see Bank Rate left on hold at 5.25% but there are three significant aspects of the decision that will be closely watched by markets – the vote split, the guidance and the forecasts.
- Just over half (10/19) of the analyst previews that we read look for a 9-0 unanimous vote but many have low conviction.
- The range of analyst expectations range from 8-1 with Dhingra voting for a cut (HSBC, MS) to an unchanged 6-3 vote with hawkish dissent (NatWest Markets). BofA and RBC both look for a 3-way split as their base case (1-7-1 and 1-6-2 respectively).
- The MNI Markets Team still look for 1-2 hawkish dissenters and assign a 40% probability to Dhingra voting for a cut at this meeting.
- We think that both Haskel and Greene are closer to 50-50 in our view so we on balance would probably expect one to continue to vote for a hike and one to vote for unchanged rates – but we would not be surprised if both voted for unchanged rates here. We think Mann will continue to vote for a 25bp hike.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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