STIR
Global market impulses bias MPC-dated OIS pricing a touch softer today after the domestic labour market data-inspired downtick on Tuesday (although yesterday saw some counter from spill over from Fed pricing, leaving the space of dovish extremes). ~40bp of tightening is priced in before the terminal rate of the current cycle is attained, meaning terminal BoE policy pricing is in the familiar ~4.90% zone. A 25bp cut is then slightly more than fully priced come the end of the Bank’s Mar ’24 meeting.
- BoE Governor Bailey will be speaking at the British Chambers of Commerce today, with text released at 1050BST. No specific subject line for his speech just yet, but it will be the keynote address of the event.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS At Close On 15 May '23 (%) |
| Jun-23 | 4.611 | 4.633 |
| Aug-23 | 4.753 | 4.784 |
| Sep-23 | 4.825 | 4.865 |
| Nov-23 | 4.819 | 4.862 |
| Dec-23 | 4.766 | 4.818 |
| Feb-24 | 4.678 | 4.739 |
| Mar-24 | 4.559 | 4.610 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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