STIR
The general bias in wider core global FI markets has taken some of the edge off of last week’s move in UK rates. That leaves BoE-dated OIS market indicating a further ~96bp of tightening in the current cycle, 10-15bp below Friday’s closing levels. This equates to just below 5.50% in BoE policy rate terms (~5.46%).
- Lower tier domestic data will be aiding the direction of travel (or at least not hindering it), with the latest Citi/YouGov inflation expectations metrics easing and the Lloyds Business barometer moving lower.
- Participants look ahead to comments from BoE’s Mann, who will speak on a panel covering the topic of central banks, inflation & monetary policy this afternoon. Mann has been one of the more hawkish voices on the MPC.
- A quick reminder that last week saw Mann note that the BoE has underestimated the persistence in inflation. This came before the firmer than expected round of CPI data covering April.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Jun-23 | 4.736 | +30.8 |
| Aug-23 | 5.015 | +58.7 |
| Sep-23 | 5.224 | +79.6 |
| Nov-23 | 5.359 | +93.1 |
| Dec-23 | 5.386 | +95.8 |
| Feb-24 | 5.359 | +93.1 |
| Mar-24 | 5.296 | +86.8 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
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