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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The general bias in wider core global FI markets has taken some of the edge off of last week’s move in UK rates. That leaves BoE-dated OIS market indicating a further ~96bp of tightening in the current cycle, 10-15bp below Friday’s closing levels. This equates to just below 5.50% in BoE policy rate terms (~5.46%).
- Lower tier domestic data will be aiding the direction of travel (or at least not hindering it), with the latest Citi/YouGov inflation expectations metrics easing and the Lloyds Business barometer moving lower.
- Participants look ahead to comments from BoE’s Mann, who will speak on a panel covering the topic of central banks, inflation & monetary policy this afternoon. Mann has been one of the more hawkish voices on the MPC.
- A quick reminder that last week saw Mann note that the BoE has underestimated the persistence in inflation. This came before the firmer than expected round of CPI data covering April.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Jun-23 | 4.736 | +30.8 |
| Aug-23 | 5.015 | +58.7 |
| Sep-23 | 5.224 | +79.6 |
| Nov-23 | 5.359 | +93.1 |
| Dec-23 | 5.386 | +95.8 |
| Feb-24 | 5.359 | +93.1 |
| Mar-24 | 5.296 | +86.8 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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