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BoE Terminal Above Fed's Upper Target, 50bp Eyed In June

STIR

Post-CPI BoE terminal rate pricing is a couple of bp off the session highs, but has still gained 35bp on the day, with markets starting to price potential for a 50bp hike in June and nearly 100bp of hikes left in the cycle.

  • The UK move is forcing a repricing higher in Fed (+1bp) and ECB (+4bp) terminal rates, but the BoE terminal is starting to leave them in the dust, now priced higher than the terminal upper bound of the Fed funds rate (5.46% vs a Fed range of 5.12-5.37%).
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +35.1bp to 5.46% (96bp of further hikes left in the cycle). June's hike is priced at 31bp (25% of 50bp hike, 75% of 25bp)
  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +4bp to 3.84% (59bp of further hikes left in the cycle). June priced at 24bp (95+% of 25bp hike)

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