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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
As we have noted elsewhere, a 25bp hike come the end of this week’s BoE meeting is priced with near certainty (expect our full preview of that event to be published at some point today), while terminal rate pricing indicates just under 70bp of cumulative tightening from current effective SONIA levels, to the ~4.85% mark, leaving benchmark BoE terminal rate pricing in the familiar 4.90-5.00% window. Just over 25bp of rate cuts are then priced by Mar ’24.
- Cost of living pressures (albeit with energy prices well shy of their well-documented, recent peaks) and the political backdrop continue to garner the bulk of the domestic headline flow.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| May-23 | 4.423 | +24.5 |
| Jun-23 | 4.621 | +44.4 |
| Aug-23 | 4.773 | +59.5 |
| Sep-23 | 4.852 | +67.5 |
| Nov-23 | 4.849 | +67.1 |
| Dec-23 | 4.805 | +62.8 |
| Feb-24 | 4.718 | +54.0 |
| Mar-24 | 4.594 | +41.6 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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