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BofA: More Focus On Fiscal Risks, Uncertainty Regarding The External Context

BRAZIL
  • BofA expect the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) to maintain the Selic Rate at 13.75% in its December meeting. The lagged effects of the monetary tightening cycle and the convergence of expectations closer to the upper band of the target for the relevant horizon for the BCB (mainly 2024) support BofA’s view that BCB's next move will be a cut, but only next year.
  • The main message should remain the same from the last two meetings, pointing that rates will remain at the current level for longer, with more focus on the fiscal risks and on the uncertainty regarding the external context.

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