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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
BofA has joined several of its peers in downgrading US growth forecasts while raising inflation expectations: they see 2022 real GDP growth of 2.6% (2.7%), with 2023 coming in at 1.5% (was 1.8%). On a quarterly basis, growth will slow all the way to 0.4% by Q423 (was 1.0%).
- Core PCE is seen at 3.0% by Q423 (2.6% prior) and 3.3% on average for 2023 (vs 3.1% prior), with no change to their 2022 core outlook.
- They see the labor market continuing to overheat, "suggesting that the Fed will have to push the unemployment rate up in 2023 and 2024".
- Even so, they haven't changed their Fed call, looking for a peak rate of 3.25-3.50% and a pause in hikes beginning May 2023 (a little above market expectations).
- They regard their baseline as on "the optimistic end of likely outcomes", with risk skewed toward an outright recession (1/3 chance of one starting in 2023) that would "likely be mild by historic standards" (they name 1970, 1990, 2000 recessions).
Source: BofA
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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