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AUSSIE BONDS: ***Bond futures sit in the middle of their ranges, with the 3-Year
future at 97.930 (+1.5 ticks) and the 10-Year future at 97.275 (+1.5 ticks) with
the domestic 3-/10-Year yield differential still sub-70bp.
- US Tsy flow has been indicative for Aussie bonds in a news light session
although US paper has outperformed in the latest move. Comments from the Vice
Chair of the Chinese Metals association, stating that China is among nations
likely to retaliate to US measures helped push Tsys to session highs.
- The underperformance of Aussie Bonds compared to their US counterparts has
allowed the AU/US 10-Year yield differential to narrow to -7.1bp (+4.3bp).
- Next week's tier 1 risk events for the space include the RBA decision, a
speech from RBA Gov. Lowe & Australian Q4 GDP data.
- For 10-Year futures bulls will take comfort in support emerging on dips back
towards 97.175. Bulls still need a close above the 200-DMA to hint at a move
back to 97.5200 Dec highs and above 97.3850 2018 highs to confirm. Bears still
need a close below 97.1750 to shift focus back to 97.0037-0450 where 2018 lows
and the LT bull channel base are noted.