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Bonds Regain Footing, Near Late Highs

US TSYS
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Tsys holding firmer, near top end session range after extending lows around midmorning, yield curves extend inversion (2s10s -3.299 at -75.263) with Bonds outperforming (30YY -.0638 at 3.6167%).

  • Short end weighed down due to moderate deal-tied rate locks and pre-auction short sets ahead today's $42B 2Y note auction (91282CGG0).
  • Tsy futures regained upward momentum after strong $42B 2Y note auction (91282CGG0) stops through: 4.139% high yield vs. 4.150% WI; 2.94x bid-to-cover vs. 2.71x prior.
  • Cross-market: while Tsys tracked German Bunds around the NY open, the midmorning bounce off lows appeared to be tracking Italian bonds w/ BTP 10Y yld -.11 at 3.92. No obvious headline driver for move in BTPs though ECB hike pricing has receded slightly on recent ECB Panetta comments:
    • ITALY’S FISCAL POLICY HAS REMAINED PRUDENT .. CAN AFFORD TO BE `ANXIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC' ON INFLATION .. WE SHOULD REASSESS SITUATION IN MARCH, Bbg -- but not enough to justify such a rally.
  • Underlying theme - market depth remains thin and relatively easily moved on smaller orders.
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Tsys holding firmer, near top end session range after extending lows around midmorning, yield curves extend inversion (2s10s -3.299 at -75.263) with Bonds outperforming (30YY -.0638 at 3.6167%).

  • Short end weighed down due to moderate deal-tied rate locks and pre-auction short sets ahead today's $42B 2Y note auction (91282CGG0).
  • Tsy futures regained upward momentum after strong $42B 2Y note auction (91282CGG0) stops through: 4.139% high yield vs. 4.150% WI; 2.94x bid-to-cover vs. 2.71x prior.
  • Cross-market: while Tsys tracked German Bunds around the NY open, the midmorning bounce off lows appeared to be tracking Italian bonds w/ BTP 10Y yld -.11 at 3.92. No obvious headline driver for move in BTPs though ECB hike pricing has receded slightly on recent ECB Panetta comments:
    • ITALY’S FISCAL POLICY HAS REMAINED PRUDENT .. CAN AFFORD TO BE `ANXIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC' ON INFLATION .. WE SHOULD REASSESS SITUATION IN MARCH, Bbg -- but not enough to justify such a rally.
  • Underlying theme - market depth remains thin and relatively easily moved on smaller orders.