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Boris Johnson Favoured to Win No Confidence Vote

POLITICAL RISK
  • On betting odds ahead of this evening's no confidence vote, Boris Johnson is highly favoured to win this evening, with betting markets pricing a ~73% chance of victory for the Prime Minister.
  • Nonetheless, the betting markets surrounding an exit date for the PM make for pessimistic reading for No.10. The most likely exit date for Boris remains '2023 or later', but the implied odds have fallen sharply - to ~51% from over 80% in mid-May.
  • The implied odds for Q3 this year have been rising steadily, and are now at ~30% from ~15% in mid-May.

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