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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
June's NAHB Housing Market Index beat expectations with a 55 reading, vs 51 expected and the first time homebuilder confidence entered positive territory in 11 months (Jul 2022).
- Both the current and future sales components exceeded 60 simultaneously for the first time since June 2022, which the NAHB attributes to "some buyers adjust[ing] to a new normal in terms of interest rates". Prospective buyers' traffic rose to 37 from 33, and was the highest since June 2022.
- While the report's conclusion that the Fed is "nearing the end of its tightening cycle" remains to be seen, today's data adds another piece of evidence that confidence in the US housing market is recovering amid "solid demand, a lack of existing inventory and improving supply chain efficiency".
- The NAHB index has bounced sharply from a low of 31 in December amid slumping sales and weak buying traffic (index dropped to 20).
- That boded poorly for housing activity: housing permits (a leading indicator for construction/completions) peaked at post-GFC highs in April before pulling back, alongside NAHB confidence.
- The NAHB has in turn has historically been a decent leading indicator for permits, and suggests that the sector may bottom out by mid-2024.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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