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Brainard Helps Pause Day's Increase In Terminal Expectations

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  • In her first appearance since late Nov, dovish remarks from Brainard help pause/very slightly trim the day’s increase in terminal rate expectations.
  • FOMC-dated OIS implies 4.88-4.89% (+3bp on the day) seen largely tied between the May and June meetings, the bringing forward to May helped by weak data yesterday.
  • Q&A: Fed policy is now in restrictive territory and now balancing risks on both sides.
  • Still ongoing but next Fedspeak comes late from an also typically dovish Williams (1835ET).


FOMC-dated OIS implied rate for June meetingSource: Bloomberg

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  • In her first appearance since late Nov, dovish remarks from Brainard help pause/very slightly trim the day’s increase in terminal rate expectations.
  • FOMC-dated OIS implies 4.88-4.89% (+3bp on the day) seen largely tied between the May and June meetings, the bringing forward to May helped by weak data yesterday.
  • Q&A: Fed policy is now in restrictive territory and now balancing risks on both sides.
  • Still ongoing but next Fedspeak comes late from an also typically dovish Williams (1835ET).


FOMC-dated OIS implied rate for June meetingSource: Bloomberg