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Brazil Current Account & IPCA Inflation Data Ahead of Jackson Hole

LATAM
  • Brazil current account balance and FDI figures are due first in LatAm before the mid-August IPCA inflation data for Brazil will cross. Mexico’s second quarter current account balance will be the final data point of the week.
  • Cash Tsys trade marginally cheaper ahead of Chair Powell’s keynote address at Jackson Hole, potentially further raising the bar for a hawkish surprise. Fedspeak continues to headline the session thereafter, with only a final U.Mich reading of note on the data front.
  • The Euro faced selling pressure through Asia-Pac hours and across the European open, resulting in a break below the key 200-dma support of 1.0804 (last broken below in Jun'21). EUR/USD then tested the base of the bull channel drawn off the March lows at 1.0769, before reverting to the 1.0800 mark ahead of this afternoon’s main event.
  • Moves follow further caution around the Sept ECB rate decision, with Reuters reporting that momentum for a rate pause is building, according to 8 separate sources. Approximately 8.5bps of tightening remains priced, shedding around 1bps on the story.
  • China unveiled a further easing of its mortgage policies to halt a slump in its residential property market and revive growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Additionally, China’s securities regulator plans to convene a meeting with some of the world’s biggest asset managers on Friday, its latest attempt to shore up confidence after a record stretch of outflows by foreign funds.
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