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Brazil Retail Sales & Argentina CPI Highlight Local Docket

LATAM
  • Ahead of the June FOMC decision, Brazil will report April retail sales data and Chile’s central bank will publish the latest traders survey ahead of the June decision on Monday. Argentina May CPI rounds off Wednesday’s calendar, where annual inflation is expected to rise to 116.40%.
  • Cash Treasuries have seen some cheapening pressure as the US comes in, taking to lows for the day seen just after the open before a bid developed through Asia hours despite a lack of drivers.
  • The FOMC’s tightening cycle is likely to “skip” June’s meeting, with the Committee holding rates at 5.00-5.25% while signalling that it currently expects to hike at the following meeting in July.
  • On Thursday, the ECB will likely hike rates by 25bp and confirm the previous decision to end APP reinvestments in July. Absent a sharp drop in core inflation, we would expect the ECB to hike again in July. Even if the ECB were to raise rates further in September, this would likely be the last turn of the screw.
  • Outside of the Fed decision, the May US PPI report will also be keenly watched. Markets watch for PPI to slow moderately on a final demand basis, falling 0.1% on the month from April's +0.2%.
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