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BRAZIL: USDBRL Rises 0.6% Amid Increase In CPI Expectations

BRAZIL
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  • Despite the further increase in 2025 Selic rate expectations in today’s BCB Focus survey, USDBRL has risen further in early trade as the broad dollar rally remains underpinned. The pair closed above resistance at 5.6917, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger, on Friday, and has risen another 0.6% today, narrowing the gap to 5.7422, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - 19 bear leg.
    • The Focus survey also revealed another increase in CPI expectations, particularly for this year, which rose to 4.50%, from 4.39%.
    • Ahead of the Nov 6 Copom meeting, attention will now turn to mid-month IPCA inflation data on Thursday, when a pick-up in headline inflation is expected.
    • Fiscal concerns also continue to weigh on local assets, putting attention of the government’s planned BRL 30bn-50bn spending cut package, details of which will start to be presented sometime after the second round of municipal elections on Oct 27.
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  • Despite the further increase in 2025 Selic rate expectations in today’s BCB Focus survey, USDBRL has risen further in early trade as the broad dollar rally remains underpinned. The pair closed above resistance at 5.6917, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger, on Friday, and has risen another 0.6% today, narrowing the gap to 5.7422, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - 19 bear leg.
    • The Focus survey also revealed another increase in CPI expectations, particularly for this year, which rose to 4.50%, from 4.39%.
    • Ahead of the Nov 6 Copom meeting, attention will now turn to mid-month IPCA inflation data on Thursday, when a pick-up in headline inflation is expected.
    • Fiscal concerns also continue to weigh on local assets, putting attention of the government’s planned BRL 30bn-50bn spending cut package, details of which will start to be presented sometime after the second round of municipal elections on Oct 27.