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Brent Back to High $80s by September Amid  Inventory Draws: JPM

OIL

Oil inventory draws over the summer should support Brent back into the high $80s-$90 range by September according to JPMorgan.

  • Demand growth remains healthy, balances could tighten with inventories likely to shift to draws estimated at 1.1mbpd in Q3.
  • Some key OPEC members are already producing well above their assigned quotas and output from the three exempt OPEC members Libya, Venezuela and Iran has been rising.
  • Many members are operating at close to full capacity and only Saudi Arabia, Russia and the UAE have substantial space capacity.
  • Pressure on prices could build in 2025 with a shift to a 1mbpd surplus as non-OPEC supply is set to surge by 1.8mbpd and demand set to slows in 2025. Brent is forecast to average $75/bbl in 2025.
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