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Brent Could Rise to $90/bbl with Q4 Deficit: Deutsche Bank


Brent needs to average $88/bbl in Q4 rising to $90/bbl for the balance of the quarter with a Q4 deficit of 300kb/d according to Deutsche Bank.

  • Q4 fundamentals suggest Brent crude below $80/bbl is relatively cheap even after bearish developments in the past month.
  • Prices are supported by potential tightening of Iran sanctions, and limited new investment plans in Venezuela.
  • An oversupply of +500kb/d is expected in H1 2024 assuming an unchanged OPEC policy although with a “reasonable chance of deeper supply discipline.”
  • Brent would easily rise back to $90/bbl with a 1mb/d supply reduction for Q1. “We would prefer not to bet against an OPEC move.”

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