Brent to Average $90/bbl in 2024: ING

Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $90/bbl in 2024, with a deep oil market deficit during the second half of the year to lift Brent prices to an average $95/bbl during 2H 2024, ING’s Head of Commodities Strategies, Warren Patterson, said in a Bloomberg interview.

• There is still significant upside risk to prices next year, with prices largely depended on Iranian oil supply, Patterson said.
• Global oil demand growth is forecast to slow next year to 1mbpd, with China accounting for around 60% of growth, compared with 2mbpd of demand growth this year, he added.
• While Chinese economic figures are not painting a positive picture, Chinese oil data are robust. The country’s crude oil imports year to date are up by 14% on the year, apparent oil demand in China is at record levels and refinery operating rates are high, he said.
• On OPEC+ production cuts Patterson said, the latest announcement from Russia and Saudi Arabia to keep current cuts in place until year-end are not offering upside to prices, as it was largely expected by the market.
• Whether both countries will extend cuts into 2024 will be largely depended on where oil prices are trading in early December, he said. Patterson also said it is likely that Russia and Saudi Arabia will extend current cuts, as the bank’s forecasts suggest a 800kbpd oil market supply surplus for early next year.