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BRL Moderately Firmer, Markets Awaiting Lula’s Fiscal Framework Approval

BRAZIL
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  • With markets trading in more settled fashion ahead of the ECB release, the Brazilian real is opening on a brighter note, up around 0.25% to trade at BRL 5.2750. Volatility across global markets continues to be the main driver for local assets.
  • On the local docket, the unemployment rate will be published on Friday, however, the focus will be on the latest BCB Focus survey inflation expectations before Wednesday’s Copom decision which carries greater weight than usual due to the administration’s rhetoric surrounding the high Selic rate.
  • Second tier inflation data released this morning from FGV which showed Brazil’s March IGP-10 inflation index at 0.05% M/m, slightly below the 0.08% median estimate.
  • Local media continue to report that Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has already sent the new fiscal framework to President Lula, who is expected to announce his approval before next BCB rate decision on Wednesday so policy makers can incorporate the fiscal outlook into its decision/statement.
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  • With markets trading in more settled fashion ahead of the ECB release, the Brazilian real is opening on a brighter note, up around 0.25% to trade at BRL 5.2750. Volatility across global markets continues to be the main driver for local assets.
  • On the local docket, the unemployment rate will be published on Friday, however, the focus will be on the latest BCB Focus survey inflation expectations before Wednesday’s Copom decision which carries greater weight than usual due to the administration’s rhetoric surrounding the high Selic rate.
  • Second tier inflation data released this morning from FGV which showed Brazil’s March IGP-10 inflation index at 0.05% M/m, slightly below the 0.08% median estimate.
  • Local media continue to report that Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has already sent the new fiscal framework to President Lula, who is expected to announce his approval before next BCB rate decision on Wednesday so policy makers can incorporate the fiscal outlook into its decision/statement.