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Broadly Richer Ahead Of PPI, Fedspeak and 30Y TIPS

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys sit richer across the curve except the very long end where 20-30Y tenors buck the trend with 30Y yields +1bp but still outperforming core EU FI.
  • The bid at the front end started with an unexpected uptick in Australian unemployment and has largely continued since then, helped more recently by China announcing sanctions against US defense companies. It sees 2Y yields through yesterday’s low but still almost 10bps higher than levels shortly before US CPI on Tue. PPI follows today with implications for core PCE inflation (released Feb 24) plus Fedspeak and 30Y TIPS supply.
  • 2YY -4.4bp at 4.587%, 5YY -3.9bp at 3.998%, 10YY -1.7bp at 3.788% and 30YY +1.2bp at 3.853%.
  • TYH3 trades 6 ticks higher at 112-07+ off earlier session highs of 112-11+, for the most part remaining within yesterday’s range aside from an overnight low of 111-29+ that now forms initial support. Resistance sits at the 50-day EMA of 114-00+.
  • Data: PPI Jan, building permits/housing starts Jan and weekly jobless claims all at 0830ET.
  • Fedspeak: Mester (0845ET), Bullard (1330ET), Gov Cook (1600ET), Mester (1815ET)
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $9B 30Y TIPS auction (912810TP3) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $75B 4W, $60B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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