Budget And Survey Data Focus Of Week

It is a big week for survey data with NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence both printing. The Budget released on Tuesday evening is likely to be the focus of the week. If it turns out to be significantly expansionary then RBA rate expectations may be affected.

• At 1930 AEST on Tuesday, the Federal Government delivers the 2023-24 budget. The budget recorded a $1bn surplus in the financial year to March due to strong commodity prices, low unemployment and higher inflation but the structural position was a deficit of $11.2bn. But Treasurer Chalmers has said that a surplus is not a priority in this term, while analysts expect the FY23 forecasts to show a small deficit around 0.25% of GDP.
• On Monday, the NAB business survey for April is published. Business conditions have been holding up and were +16 last month while confidence has been volatile and last recorded -1. The cost/price and labour market components will be monitored closely.
• There are also March building approvals on Monday. They are expected to rise a further 3% after 4% in February.
• Retail sales volumes for Q1 print on Tuesday and are forecast to fall 0.6% q/q after -0.2% in Q4, as inflation eats away at retail values, which were flat on the quarter. April CBA household spending intentions are also released on Tuesday.
• Westpac consumer confidence for May is also published Tuesday and the results pre- and post the surprise RBA hike on May 2 will be interesting. Last month, the series rose 9.4% driven by the RBA’s first pause this cycle.
• On Thursday, the Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations for May print. They have fallen the last 3 months and are currently at 4.6%.