MNI BRIEF: BOE Rate Cut Closer But Still Some Way Off - Pill

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 23

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: Kaplan Says Loose Fiscal Is Holding Up Cut

MNI BRIEF: Hungary Central Bank Cuts To 7.75% As Expected

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Tues; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1059 Tues; -5.03% Y/Y

MNI: UK JAN-MAR MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +4.8% :XpertHR/Brightmine

Brightmine (XpertHR): Pay Deals Fall to 4.8%; Expected 5% for 2024 Overall

US Treasury Auction Calendar

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Budget Preview – Tax Details Watched To Counter New Spending [1/2]

CANADA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsCanada Bank of Canada Market NewsPolitical Market News
  • The federal government’s Budget 2024 is released tomorrow from 1600ET.
  • A steady reveal of new spending pledges (heavily skewed towards housing but also covering healthcare, military spending and AI) has reduced scope for surprises with a greater focus on the revenue side and tax plans in order to try and keep close to previous guidance.
  • However, writing five days ahead of the Budget, Scotiabank tallied C$43bn of major new spending with about C$26bn having a budgetary impact, but saw a final budget day toll of around C$31bn over the forecast horizon so further spending pledges can’t be ruled out. They see this as being worth circa 0.2pps of GDP annually on a backdrop of already strong government spending.
  • TD estimate a budget deficit of C$41bn (1.4% GDP) for FY24/25. “We will gladly concede that the risks around the deficit skew higher, but our working assumptions are as follows: a) the next election will not be held until fall 2025, as the Liberals have no incentive to call an earlier election given current polling, and b) the government will be hesitant to materially ramp up spending ~18 months ahead of an election given cost of living concerns.”
  • You can see the latest state of play for fiscal forecasts in the table below, including the government’s Fall Economic Statement plus the Parliamentary Budget Office’s more timely estimates:
223 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • The federal government’s Budget 2024 is released tomorrow from 1600ET.
  • A steady reveal of new spending pledges (heavily skewed towards housing but also covering healthcare, military spending and AI) has reduced scope for surprises with a greater focus on the revenue side and tax plans in order to try and keep close to previous guidance.
  • However, writing five days ahead of the Budget, Scotiabank tallied C$43bn of major new spending with about C$26bn having a budgetary impact, but saw a final budget day toll of around C$31bn over the forecast horizon so further spending pledges can’t be ruled out. They see this as being worth circa 0.2pps of GDP annually on a backdrop of already strong government spending.
  • TD estimate a budget deficit of C$41bn (1.4% GDP) for FY24/25. “We will gladly concede that the risks around the deficit skew higher, but our working assumptions are as follows: a) the next election will not be held until fall 2025, as the Liberals have no incentive to call an earlier election given current polling, and b) the government will be hesitant to materially ramp up spending ~18 months ahead of an election given cost of living concerns.”
  • You can see the latest state of play for fiscal forecasts in the table below, including the government’s Fall Economic Statement plus the Parliamentary Budget Office’s more timely estimates: