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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CEE
Bulgarians go to the polls for the second time in three months on 11 July in a snap election called after the previous legislative vote delivered a hung parliament, with opinion polls showing little in the way of movement that could lead to the formation of a stable majority coalition.
- Trend poll: GERB: 21.7% (-4.1), There Is Such A Nation (ITN): 20.2% (+2.6), Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP): 16.1% (+1.3), Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS): 10.9% (+0.5), Democratic Bulgaria (DB): 11.2% (+1.9), Stand Up! Mafia Get Out! (IS.MV): 5% (+0.4), Bulgarian Patriots (BP): 3.9%. Fieldwork: 11-18 June. Chgs w/ Apr Election. 1,003 respondents.
- Barometer poll: GERB: 22.5% (-3.3), ITN: 18.2% (+0.6), BSP: 17.1% (+2.3), DPS: 11.6% (+2.3), DB: 9.1% (-0.2), BP: 6.4%, IS.MV: 4.3% (-0.3). Fieldwork: 18-23 June. Chgs w/ Apr Election. 860 respondents.
- Following the April election, neither PM Boyko Borisov's GERB, nor the anti-establishment populist 'There Is Such A Nation' (ITN) were able to form a majority coalition, leading to a snap election.
Chart 1. Bulgarian Parliament following April 2021 Election, Seats (and Change from Previous Parliament)
Source: Bulgarian Parliament, MNI
- Prior to the July election, a number of far-right nationalist parties that failed to cross the electoral threshold of 4% in April have united to form the Bulgarian Patriots group, which is polling either above or just below the threshold depending on the poll.
- Should BP enter parliament (and the anti-corruption, anti-GERB ISMV not cross the threshold) it could seek to form a coalition with GERB, giving Borisov a path to holding onto power.
- Nevertheless, the fragmented nature of political support points towards further instability following the election and the non-negligible threat of yet another snap election if no coalition can be formed.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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