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Bull Flattening Amid Safe Haven Move

US TSYS

Treasuries have rallied in risk-off trade overnight Friday, with futures regaining more than half the ground lost following Thursday's post-CPI selloff and weak 30Y auction.

  • The curve has bull flattened, with TY futures around session highs alongside dollar strength, equity weakness, and a jump in oil prices.
  • These moves are consistent with a flight to safe havens ahead of the weekend amid conflict in the Middle East. Softer than expected China inflation data also helped.
  • The 2-Yr Tsy yield is down 4.5bps at 5.0241%, 5-Yr is down 7.1bps at 4.621%, 10-Yr is down 8.2bps at 4.6145%, and 30-Yr is down 7.4bps at 4.7799%. Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) are up 18.5/32 at 107-26 (L: 107-09 / H: 107-26.5)
  • Following Thursday's strong core CPI reading, today's data slate looks less impactful, with prelim October UMichigan sentiment taking most focus; we also get import/export prices.
  • The lone scheduled speaker is Philly Fed's Harker speaking on the economic outlook.
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