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Bull Flattening In Focus As Growth Concerns Re-Escalate

BONDS

Below-expected preliminary European PMI readings, a pullback in equities and a stronger dollar have benefited global core FI in early trade Friday as growth slowdown fears resurface.

  • Eurozone and UK flash June PMIs disappointed on both the services and manufacturing prints. Bunds have led the global bull flattening rally, with Gilts lagging them slightly after UK retail sales showed signs of strength.
  • 2s10s inversions are in focus: US is below -100bp for the first time since March, while UK and German are at post-2000 and post-1990 lows, respectively.
  • ECB peak depo rate pricing has dipped back below 4%, with BoE up slightly hitting a fresh peak above 6.2%, and Fed pricing flat.
  • ECB speakers include Vujcic, de Cos and Panetta.
  • Prelim PMIs are likewise the US highlight, with KC Fed Services rounding off the week's data calendar. FOMC speakers include Cleveland's Mester (Bullard is delivering the same speech he's delivered 2x before).

Latest levels:

  • Sep US 10Y futures (TY) up 11/32 at 113-2.5 (L: 112-22 / H: 113-7)
  • Sep Bund futures (RX) up 123 ticks at 133.91 (L: 132.73 / H: 134.35)
  • Sep Gilt futures (G) up 122 ticks at 96.5 (L: 95.32 / H: 97)
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 0.3bps tighter at 163.4bps
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