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Bull Flattening To New 2s10s Lows Ahead Of Light Docket

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have continued Friday’s net rally (temporarily interrupted by a stronger than expected ISM Services report) despite relatively little further moderation overnight in Fed rate expectations.
  • The setting of China’s annual GDP growth (“around 5%”) at the less optimistic end of the spectrum of potential outcomes has helped provide support. There has been little change since then at the front end but the longer end continues a bid as it reverses the cheapening after the surprise jump in ISM mfg prices paid earlier in the week, with the combination seeing 2s10s touch fresh multi-decade lows of -92.5bps.
  • 2YY -1.7bp at 4.840%, 5YY -3.2bp at 4.214%, 10YY -3.9bp at 3.913% and 30YY -3.8bp at 3.838%.
  • TYM3 trades 9 ticks higher at 111-12 just off session highs of 111-14 back at pre-ISM mfg levels. The bounce is deemed corrective with resistance at 111-23+ (Feb 28 high) and support at the bear trigger of 110-12+ (Mar 2 low).
  • Data: Factory orders/final durable goods Jan (1000ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsys $57B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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