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Bull Flattening With Core PCE, Fedspeak In Focus Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a sizeable bull flattening which pushes the 10YY through week lows for a greater than 30bp swing from Wednesday’s brief clearance of 4% prior to BoE gilt purchases, and with Treasuries continuing to lag moves in Gilts and EU FI this morning ahead of a data- and perhaps Fedspeak-focused session with no issuance.
  • 2YY -5.2bps at 4.141%, 5YY -8.5bps at 3.932%, 10YY -9.7bps at 3.688%, and 30YY -9.1bps at 3.633%, which leaves 2s10s at the lower end of the week’s wide range at -45bps.
  • TYZ2 trades 13 ticks higher at 112-27+, edging towards Wednesday’s high of 112-30 (and the Sep 23 high of 112-30+) after which sits 114-00 (Sep 22 high).
  • Data: Heavy docket with PCE core inflation & income/spending for Aug after yesterday’s sizeable revisions in national accounts up to Q2 (pushing historical core PCE notably higher) plus MNI Chicago PMI for Sep and final U.Mich for Sep.
  • Fedspeak: VC Brainard, Governor Bowman, NY Fed Williams plus 2x Barkin (’24 voter) although some might have limited focus on mon pol.
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