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Bullard On Labor Market

FED
  • Strong jobs market suggests consumption will hold up well – prefers real data rather than consumer surveys.
  • Nonfarm payroll employment is still not back to the trend level that would have been drawn from the 2016-19 era.
  • Structural issues: You have a structural shortage of workers by a couple mln people that aren’t in the labor force for various reasons. i) Old research showed that if someone retires, they’re more likely to re-enter the market within a year and less likely after - Covid meant more went beyond that year out. ii) Lack of immigration during Covid is a permanent loss. iii) Daycare is still a problem having got crushed in Covid.
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