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Bullard Sticking To Hawkish Guns After Another Upside Surprise For Payrolls

FED
Typically hawkish commentary from St Louis Fed's Bullard (non-voter).
  • He backed 25bp hike this week, thought it was a good next step for the FOMC as there is a lot of inflation.
  • Base case is slow growth and somewhat softer labor market. That's what people should be putting most weight on.
  • Today's payrolls report surprised Wall Street to the upside for the 12th month in a row ("guys, maybe you should change your model a little bit"). The unemployment rate is lower today than it was a year ago and lowest since 1969. Job openings 40% higher than in 2019 before the pandemic. This is a very tight labor market and will take a while to cool it off. Rumours of the imminent demise of the economy are greatly exaggerated.
  • The replacement of lower interest rate with higher interest rate loans as time goes on can be managed. Most banks are far more conservatively run and more orthodox in how they handle both liquidity and their loan portfolios than SVB. My sense is that the regional banks will do just fine.
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