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CAD FI Mostly Lags US-Led Sell-Off

CANADA
  • GoC yields trade 6.5-10bps higher, led by 10s.
  • Performance vs Tsys has been mixed, with 2s underperforming, 5-10y tenors slightly outperforming (no large impact from the largest bid-to-cover for a 5y auction since Sep’21) and larger outperformance at the very long end.
  • BoC-dated OIS continues to sit with around 50/50 odds of a first cut in June but it now only just prices a first cut in July.
  • 3-mth CORRA futures have lagged the sell-off in SOFR contrary to front end GoCs underperforming. CORH4/Z4 has narrowed further to 72bp of cuts vs a little less than 90bp of cuts before both US CPI (Mar 12) and the BoC decision (Mar 6).
  • The moves are entirely US-led, with softer than first thought manufacturing sales including downward revisions having little sway.
  • Tomorrow sees housing starts and wholesale finalized sales but greater focus is on Tuesday’s CPI.

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