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CAD Rates Buck GoC Outperformance

CANADA
  • Front end GoCs have firmly outperformed Treasuries today, sitting -5.5bps vs -1.5bps.
  • However, with an eye on Wednesday’s BoC decision (preview to come tomorrow), it’s a move that hasn’t translated in 3M CORRA futures, which more closely trade in line their SOFR counterparts.
  • Near-term contracts are little changed (trading unchanged to 1bp cheaper), building to 7bp richer for the Dec’24.
  • It’s a move that sees CORZ3/Z4 widen to -47bps (from the terminal implied yield of 5.12% in the Dec’23), from -39bps at Friday’s close and circa -30bps seen through the middle of last week. The rate path more broadly is back particularly close to how it looked after the Sep 6 BoC.

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