Free Trial

CAD Rates Extend Rally On Softer US Data, BoC On Horizon

CANADA
  • CAD rates have rallied further in recent trade but still underperform their US counterparts, with 3mth CORRA implied yields 9bp higher on the day for late 2024/early 2025 contracts vs +12bps for SOFR.
  • It’s driven by spillover from the miss in US ISM mfg survey, led by new orders and employment. Local factors have been limited - the S&P Global Canadian PMI increased from 48.3 to 49.7, its tenth sub-50 reading but the slowest implied contraction in that sequence.
  • CORH4/Z4 sits at 90bp of cuts vs 76bps before yesterday’s CAD GDP and US PCE/jobless claims, whilst BoC-dated CORRA OIS has taken a step closer to fully pricing a first cut in June (around 22bps) vs July previously.
  • Wednesday provides the next focal point, with labour productivity for Q4 just 75 minutes before the the BoC announcement, with its rate decision and press conference either side of Fed Chair Powell’s House testimony.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.