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CAD Rates Set For Least Inverted Close For 2024 Since Dec FOMC

CANADA
  • Consistent with the underperformance seen in front-end GoCs, 3M CORRA futures have sold off more heavily than their US counterparts today on little specific news flow.
  • CORH5 implied yields sit 8.5bps higher on the day vs 5bps for SFRH5, whilst CORH4/Z4 at -81.5bps at typing is set for the least inverted close since the Dec FOMC.
  • The shunt higher in implied yields since the Jan 24 BoC shown in the table has far more to do with US factors and payrolls in particular than domestic events, barring some upside from CAD GDP.
  • Tomorrow sees CAD jobs along with US CPI revisions, with currently a first cut from the BoC not fully priced until July.

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