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Campos Neto Rhetoric Shifting, Says Room For Monetary Policy Action Ahead

BRAZIL
  • Speaking on Monday at an event tied to retail development in Brazil, BCB President Roberto Campos Neto noted that while core inflation has been dropping slowly in Latin America, inflation expectations have started to improve. Campos Neto acknowledged that the yield curve in Brazil has dropped sharply and that the market is giving credibility to what is being done, which opens the room for monetary policy action ahead.
  • The comments, along with the latest Focus survey data, provide an interesting backdrop for next Wednesday’s Copom meeting. All surveyed analysts are expecting an unchanged decision, however, there appears to be a growing consensus that the statement may provide a relatively dovish undertone in acknowledgement of the latest developments. This could perhaps setup for the commencement of easing at the August 02 meeting. Indeed, Verde Asset Management remain bullish on Brazilian stocks, stating that conditions are there for Brazil’s central bank to start cutting the benchmark interest rate in August.
    • Potential for further comments from RCN today as he spends the day in Sao Paulo, holding a virtual meeting with XP Asset Management chief-economist Fernando Genta at 3pm, followed by a videoconference with the Credit Suisse chairman Ivan Monteiro and CEO Marcello Chilov at 4pm. Earlier, he makes an institutional visit to Grupo Estado at 12:30pm (all Brasilia time).
  • Elsewhere today, the treasury auctions Selic-linked LFT notes due 2026 and 2029; inflation-linked NTN-B local notes due 2023 and 2028.
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