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Can-US 2Y Yields Converge Further As BoC’s Hawkish Hold Assessed

CANADA
  • GoC underperformance continues for a third day, again led by the front end with 2YY +2.2bps vs -1.7bps for Tsys.
  • It has seen the 2Y Can-US spread narrow to just -8bps from -25bps at Friday’s close and the tightest since Sep 2022.
  • Domestic data has played an important role this week, with housing data on Monday bouncing much more than expected before yesterday’s CPI headline surprise and realisation of stubbornly strong monthly core run rates.
  • The BoC’s hawkish conditional pause has been called into question ahead of the Jun 7 decision. Whilst it remains a little way off, there are only a few significant releases of note in the interim, starting with retail sales on Fri and Q1 GDP on May 31.
  • OIS currently prices a little over a 1/3 of a 25bp hike but should GDP beat BoC expectations of 2.3% annualized it could further tilt hiking expectations.

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